•  Bulls show resilience below the 0.70 mark despite a modest USD uptick. 
   •  Pickup in the US bond yields/weaker commodities did little to exert pressure.

The NZD/USD pair built on its modest rebound from over one-week lows and is currently placed at fresh session tops, around the 0.7015-20 region.

The US Dollar stood tall against its major counterpart in anticipation of some hawkish policy outlook from the Federal Reserve, evident from the prevalent positive tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields. 

The pair, however, defied a modest USD uptick and continues finding decent buying interest at lower levels, showing resilience below the key 0.70 psychological mark. 

Even weaker commodity prices, which tend to undermine demand for commodity-linked currencies, also did little to prompt any selling, with a bout of short-covering helping the pair to recover a major part of overnight weakness. 

Today’s key focus will remain on the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting, where fresh signals over the central bank’s monetary policy outlook for 2018 should help determine the pair’s next leg of directional move. 

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 0.7035-40 region and is closely followed by 0.7060 barrier, over one-month tops set on June 6th.

On the flip side, the 0.70 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken would mark a fresh bearish breakdown and accelerate the downfall towards 0.6965-60 support area.

The post NZD/USD refreshes session tops, comfortable above 0.70 handle appeared first on CIX Markets.

Rising global supply worries and firmer DXY weighs down on oil.
Focus shifts to EIA crude data to confirm the bearish API crude inventories report.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) seems to have caught a fresh bid-wave in the European session, having reversed a dip below the $ 66 mark, although the bounce looks shallow amid persistent worries over rising global oil production. The output levels in the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan are seen on the rise lately, dampening the investors’ sentiment.

More so, the latest Bloomberg report citing a Russian source, as saying that Russia is planning to propose the OPEC and its other allies to return their production to Oct 2016 levels.

Further, oil prices also remain weighed by the bearish API crude inventory report released late-Tuesday.  The API data showed that the US crude oil inventories rose by 830,000 barrels in the week to June 8, to 433.7 million.

Meanwhile, broad-based US dollar buying amidst expectations of a hawkish Fed outcome also keeps the bearish pressure intact on the black gold. A stronger US dollar makes the USD-denominated oil more expensive for the foreign buyers.

The latest leg higher in the barrel of WTI can be mainly attributed to the IEA’s monthly oil report, which highlighted that Iran and Venezuela oil output could slump by almost 30 percent due to US sanctions.

Looking ahead, all eyes remain on the US government official crude supplies report and FOMC decision for fresh direction on the prices.

The post WTI trims losses to regain $ 66 ahead of EIA data, Fed appeared first on CIX Markets.

The German Institute for Economic Research, commonly known as DIW Berlin, revised their German economic growth forecasts for 2018 & 2019, citing a surprisingly weak start to the year and increasing uncertainty regarding the global economy. 

Key points:

   •  GDP to grow 1.9% in 2018 (prior forecast 2.4%).
   •  GDP to grow 1.7% in 2019 (prior forecast 1.9%).

The post DIW downgrades German growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appeared first on CIX Markets.

Analysts at Nomura think it is highly likely that the FOMC will raise rates at the 12-13 June meeting.

Key Quotes

“At this point, it would be extremely surprising were the Committee to forego a rate hike. Economic data have indicated accelerating activity over the intermeeting period, with an unemployment rate at 3.8% and inflation approaching the Committee’s 2% objective. Given that economic momentum has accelerated since March, we expect the Committee’s new rates forecast to reflect a total of four rate hikes in 2018, up from three previously. While a rate hike appears likely, we expect the mechanics of the policy change to be somewhat different in June.”

“Consistent with the May FOMC minutes, we believe the Committee will raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, to 1.75-2.00%, but will increase the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) by only 20bp, 5bp lower than the top of the target range. Consistent with the May minutes and recent comments by Governor Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Williams in particular, we expect revisions to the post-meeting statement’s forward guidance language.”

“Finally, we expect Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference remarks, in addition to explaining the IOER adjustment and forward guidance language changes, to largely adhere to points made by Governor Brainard in her speech on 31 May.”

The post FOMC will raise rates today – Nomura appeared first on CIX Markets.

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on the pair while a test of the 111.40 region is still on the cards.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Against our expectation, USD did not break the strong 110.50 resistance yesterday (high of 110.49). However, this level was taken out after NY close (at the time of writing, high has been 110.54) and we continue to see upside risk from here. That said, upward momentum is patchy at best and 110.80 may not be an easy level to break (next resistance is at 111.00). Only a break back below 109.95 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 110.15)”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD edged above the 110.50 resistance at the time of writing (high of 110.54) and as highlighted yesterday, a clear break of this level would indicate that the current USD strength could test the 111.00 resistance. Further extension to last month’s top near 111.40 is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are not high (momentum indicators appear to be lackluster at this stage). Overall, we hold a ‘positive’ view for USD (especially for the next few days) and only a break of the ‘key support’ at 109.70 (level previously at 109.40) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased”.


The post USD/JPY a visit to 111.40 is not ruled out – UOB appeared first on CIX Markets.

Senior Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph noted the pair remains on recovery-mode for the time being.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF remains above the 55 day moving average at .9829 and is still attempting to recover from there. The near term weakness is viewed as a correction lower and the Elliott wave count continues to indicate that this is the end of the correction lower. The cross needs to rise above the current June high at .9911 in order to restore upside pressure”.

“Initial support below last week’s low at .9789 lies at the .9725/38.2% retracement and the .9717 200 day ma”.

“Above .9911 targets .9984, the end of May high and then 1.0057, the recent high. This guards the 1.0093/1.0108 (April 2017 high and 78.6% retracement) and then 1.0343 – the 2016 high”.

The post USD/CHF stance remains constructive – Commerzbank appeared first on CIX Markets.